Hi again, Forward Thinkers!
Back in the Renaissance, people believed that one really
intelligent person could learn everything there was to know.
That also means that it was the last age in which calling someone
a 'know-it-all' wasn't an insult. Since that time, it has become
clear that knowing everything - even about one small field of
knowledge - is impossible. Most of us are content to become
expert on something, but, for anything outside of what we know,
we have to rely on experts in that field. So, 500 years has
taken us from the Age of Reason to the Age of Punditry.
Physicist Niels Bohr defined an expert as: "... a person who
has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow
field." In consulting our gurus, we can only hope that they
have already made all of those errors BEFORE giving advice.
While there is no really reliable, universal test for experts, we
trust that people who specialize in a particular topic know more
on that subject than we do. But it's clear that, too many times,
they just know moron that subject.
There's something about predicting the future that brings
out both the good and bad in experts. Whatever hopes or fears
they have are clearly reflected in what they think they see
coming over the horizon. It is often possible to see the
prediction more as a psychological exam than a true reflection of
what might really be here tomorrow. At even the simplest level,
you can determine if the person is an optimist or pessimist by
whether they believe things will get better or worse in the
future. The way things often work out, they are neither better
nor worse, just different.
For this 150th edition of Sunday Funnies, I could ALMOST
have predicted that we'd be saying Thanks to: Laura Hong Li,
Jerry Taff, Sylvia Libin He, Dan Butler, Yasmin & Meredith
Leischer, Fumiko Umino, Steve Smith, Kerry Miller, Carol Becwar,
Howard Lesniak, Dick Ginkowski, Beth Butler, Nnamdi Elleh, Brian
Siegl, Larry Sakar, Jack Gervais, Paul Roser, Sue Yan, and
Consulting Futurist David Zach.
The dumbest comment ever on the future? How about this from
1950's TV Psychic "The Amazing Criswell" in the completely
idiotic science fiction movie "Plan 9 From Outer Space":
"We are ALL interested in the FUTURE, for that is where YOU
and I are going to spend the REST of our LIVES."
I Predict That You'll Have A Great Week,
(But I could be wrong...)
--:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)--
"The human race, to which so many of my readers belong, has
been playing at children's games from the beginning... and
one of the games to which it is most attached is called,
'Keep tomorrow dark,' [which is also named] "Cheat the
Prophet." The players listen very carefully and
respectfully to all that the clever men have to say about
what is to happen in the next generation. The players then
wait until all the clever men are dead, and bury them
nicely. They then go and do something else. That is all.
For a race of simple tastes, however, it is great fun.
- Writer G. K. Chesterton's in his novel
"Napoleon of Notting Hill."
--:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)--
WHEN THINGS DON'T TURN OUT AS YOU THREATENED...
--------------------------------------------
"About the capitalist states, it doesn't depend on you
whether or not we exist. If you don't like us, don't accept
our invitations, and don't invite us to come and see you.
Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will
bury you.
- Soviet Premier Nikita Sergeyevich
Khrushev (1894-1971) at a reception for
Wladyslaw Gomulka at the Polish Embassy,
Moscow, November 18, 1956.
[ Not only has the old Soviet Union fallen to
pieces, but Krushev's son, who lives near
Providence, Rhode Island, just took the test
to become a citizen of the U.S. after living
here for almost a decade. ]
--:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)--
THE UNSTEADY MARCH OF PROGRESS
------------------------------
- "When the Paris Exhibition closes electric light will close
with it and no more be heard of."
- Erasmus Wilson (1878) Professor at
Oxford University
- "Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit the
voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the
thing would be of no practical value."
- 1865 editorial in the Boston Post
- Animals, which move, have limbs and muscles. The earth does
not have limbs and muscles; therefore it does not move."
- Scipio Chiaramonti, Professor of
philosophy and mathematics at University
of Pisa in 1633, arguing against the Sun
as the center of the solar system.
- The Kolonische Zeitung [Koln, Germany, 28 March 1819] listed
the following reasons against using gas for street lighting,
including:
Theological: It is an intervention in God's order,
which makes nights dark...
Medical: It will be easier for people to be in the
streets at night, afflicting them with colds...
Philosophical-moral: Morality deteriorates through
street lighting. Artificial lighting drives out
fear of the dark, which keeps the weak from
sinning...
- "They will never try to steal the phonograph because it has
no commercial value."
- Thomas Edison (1847-1931). (He later
changed his mind.)
- "[Television] won't be able to hold on to any market it
captures after the first six months. People will soon get
tired of staring at a plywood box every night."
- Darryl F. Zanuck, head of 20th
Century-Fox in 1946.
- "Television won't last. It's a flash in the pan"
- Mary Somerville, pioneer of radio
educational broadcasts, 1948.
- "That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The
[atomic] bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in
explosives."
- Admiral William Leahy. (Advising
President Truman, when asked his opinion
of the atomic bomb project.)
- "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously
considered as a means of communication. The device is
inherently of no value to us."
- Western Union internal memo, 1876. On
the basis of this report, the company
rejected Alexander Graham Bell's offer
to sell all rights to the telephone to
the company for $100,000, saying "This
company has no use for an electrical
toy."
--:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)--
- "When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that
something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When
he states that something is impossible, he is most probably
wrong."
- Arthur C. Clarke - Clarke's First Law
--:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)--
GETTING FROM PLACE TO PLACE...
---------------------------
- "What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out
of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?"
- The Quarterly Review, England (March
1825)
- "...transport by railroad car would result in the
emasculation of our troops and would deprive them of the
option of the great marches which have played such an
important role in the triumph of our armies."
- Dominique Francois Arago (1786-1853)
- "In Bavaria the Royal College of Doctors, having been
consulted, declared that railroads, if they were
constructed, would cause the greatest deterioration in the
health of the public, because such rapid movement would
cause brain trouble among travelers, and vertigo among those
who looked at moving trains.
"For this last reason it was recommended that all
tracks be enclosed by high board fences raised above the
height of the cars and engines.
"Rail travel at high speed is not possible because
passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia."
- Dr. Dionysus Lardner (1793-1859),
Professor of Natural Philosophy and
Astronomy at University College, London.
- "Men might as well project a voyage to the Moon as attempt
to employ steam navigation against the stormy North Atlantic
Ocean."
- Dr. Dionysus Lardner (1838) Professor of
Natural Philosophy and Astronomy,
University College, London
- "ALL THE PASSENGERS ARE SAFE"
- Lancashire Evening Post headline on the
Titanic sinking, 1912.
- Horseless carriages propelled by gasoline might attain
speeds of 14 or even 20 miles per hour. The menace to our
people of vehicles of this type hurtling through our streets
and along our roads and poisoning the atmosphere would call
for prompt legislative action even if the military and
economic implications were not so overwhelming... [T]he
cost of producing [gasoline] is far beyond the financial
capacity of private industry... In addition the development
of this new power may displace the use of horses, which
would wreck our agriculture."
- U. S. Congressional Record, 1875.
- "That the automobile has practically reached the limit of
its development is suggested by the fact that during the
past year no improvements of a radical nature have been
introduced."
- Scientific American, Jan. 2, 1909.
- "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."
- Lord Kelvin, president of the Royal
Society, in 1895. Kelvin also said:
"Radio has no future" in 1897 and
"X-Rays will prove to be a hoax."
- "... no possible combination of known substances, known
forms of machinery, and known forms of force, can be united
in a practical machine by which man shall fly long distances
through the air."
- Simon Newcomb (1835-1909), astronomer,
head of the U.S. Naval Observatory.
- "I confess that in 1901 I said to my brother Orville that
man would not fly for fifty years. Two years later we
ourselves made flights. This demonstration of my impotence
as a prophet gave me such a shock that ever since I have
distrusted myself and avoided all predictions."
- Wilbur Wright, 1908
- "To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into
the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the
passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land
alive, and then return to earth -- all that constitutes a
wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say
that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of
all future advances."
- Radio pioneer Dr. Lee DeForest, 1957.
--:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)--
"I could be wrong about this. I've been wrong before.
Better to be wrong than vague."
- Visionary Physicist Dr. Freeman Dyson
--:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)--
THE POLITICAL ARENA...
-------------------
I'll admit that expecting politicians to make intelligent,
honest predictions is a little like expecting pigs to soar like
the eagles, but most of the time they manage to sound at least
competent. Here are some who didn't:
- "The private enterprise system indicates that some people
have higher incomes than others."
- Jerry Brown
- "It's no exaggeration to say that the undecideds could go
one way or another."
- George Bush, US President
- "[The Equal Rights Amendment] is about a socialist,
anti-family political movement that encourages women to
leave their husbands, kill their children, practice
witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians."
- Pat Robertson - In a fund-raising letter
against the Iowa ERA Campaign, 1992.
[ Missed taking your medication again, didn't
you, Pat. ]
- "Sure, it's going to kill a lot of people, but they may be
dying of something else anyway."
- Othal Brand, member of a Texas pesticide
review board, on the use of the chemical
Chlordane.
- "Teachers should not impose their belief that the Earth is
round on students who have been brought up to believe that
it is flat."
- Jim Cooper, chief for educational
matters under Arizona governor Evan
Mecham.
--:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)--
SAY WHAT?
--------
- "We're going to turn this team around 360 degrees."
- Jason Kidd
- "The people in the Navy look on motherhood as being
compatible with being a woman."
- Rear Admiral James R. Hogg
- "And for the tourist who really wants to get away from it
all - safaris in Vietnam"
- Newsweek magazine predicting popular
holidays for the late 1960's
--:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)--
THE COMPLEX WORLD AS EXPLAINED BY EXPERTS
-----------------------------------------
- "We don't necessarily discriminate. We simply exclude
certain types of people."
- Colonel Gerald Wellman, ROTC Instructor
- "Traditionally, most of Australia's imports come from
overseas."
- Keppel Enderbery
- "You see, wire telegraph is a kind of a very, very long cat.
You pull his tail in New York and his head is meowing in Los
Angeles. Do you understand this? And radio operates
exactly the same way: you send signals here, they receive
them there. The only difference is that there is no cat."
- Albert Einstein's explanation of radio.
- "The answer is 'yes' or 'no', depending on the
interpretation."
- Albert Einstein in Scientific American
Magazine, April, 1950.
--:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)--
THE DAN QUAYLE AWARD
--------------------
To be fair, I don't believe that Dan Quayle is really quite
as stupid as he has often been portrayed. But in saying that,
you have to acknowledge that our former Vice President gives an
excellent impression of being a moron. Having the brain and
mouth operating in different modes is common for politicians, but
DQ seems to misspeak even more than most:
- "It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's
the impurities in our air and water that are doing it."
- "My friends, no matter how rough the road may be, we can and
we will never, never surrender to what is right."
- Speaking to the Christian Coalition
about abstinence on Nov. 15, 1991.
- "[It's] time for the human race to enter the solar system."
- On sending a manned mission to Mars
--:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)-----:-)--
© 1999 by Bill Becwar. All Rights Reserved.
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